Oscar Predictions 2011

We are now only a few days away from the 83rd annual Academy Awards. Without further ado, here are my picks.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Will win: The King's Speech

Should win: Inception

I love "The King's Speech," and even if it wins over "Inception" it will be a worthy winner. "Inception" will get overlooked because it's a sci-fi/action movie. Neither of those genres are liked by the academy, with LOTR being the exception. That, and it may have been too intellectual for some of the voters. All that sad, "The King's Speech" was extremely well-done on every level so I would be fine with it winning this category. If "The Social Network" should win you may hear me screaming for miles. For me it was the most overrated movie of 2010. Long, boring, and hollow. I expected better from David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin.

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Will win: Natalie Portman

Should win: Natalie Portman

This is Portman's to lose. Not only was her acting job off the charts in "Black Swan," but she pulled off the ballet part. Her descent into madness is extremely convincing. Her performance was the best of her career and her best part since "Garden State."

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)

Will win: Colin Firth

Should win: Colin Firth

Firth has won all the awards leading up to this. That, and he's AMAZING in the role. He makes totally convincing a vulnerable and complex public figure. Last year he was beat by Bridges. This year it will be the other way around.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Will win: Christian Bale

Should win: Geoffrey Rush

Rush already has an Oscar for "Shine," so it looks like the odds are in the favor of the other actors. Christian Bale has the momentum. Look for Batman to be an Oscar-winner come Sunday.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Will win: Melissa Leo

Should win: Hailee Steinfeld

As big a role as Bridges has in "True Grit," the true star is newcomer Steinfeld. However, Leo has been raking in the hardware so it looks like Steinfeld will have to wait for her Oscar.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Will win: Toy Story 3

Should win: How to Train Your Dragon

Honestly, I adore "Toy Story 3." All the movies in the series have been great! But "How to Train Your Dragon" was such an original story and the look of it took animation to another level. Either winning would be fine by me, but "Toy Story 3" looks to be the winner.

Best Documentary Short Subject
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

Will win: Sun Come Up

Best Short Film (Animated)
Day & Night Teddy Newton
The Gruffalo Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
Let's Pollute Geefwee Boedoe
The Lost Thing Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) Bastien Dubois

Will win: Let's Pollute

Best Short Film (Live Action)
The Confession Tanel Toom
The Crush Michael Creagh
God of Love Luke Matheny
Na Wewe Ivan Goldschmidt
Wish 143 Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

Will win: The Confession

Achievement in Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will win: Alice in Wonderland

Achievement in Cinematography
Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (Wally Pfister)
The King's Speech (Danny Cohen)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)

Will win: Inception

Achievement in Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood)
I Am Love (Antonella Cannarozzi)
The King's Speech (Jenny Beaven)
The Tempest (Sandy Powell)
True Grit (Mary Zophres)

Will win: Alice in Wonderland

Achievement in Directing
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

Will win: Tom Hooper

Should win: Christopher Nolan

As much as I loved "The King's Speech" and as great a job as Hooper did, Nolan should be the winner hands-down. The fact that he wasn't even nominated was the snub of the year.

Best Documentary Feature
Exit through the Gift Shop Banksy, director (Paranoid Pictures)
Gasland Josh Fox, director (Gasland Productions, LLC)
Inside Job Charles Ferguson, director (Representational Pictures)
Restrepo Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger, directors (Outpost Films)
Waste Land Lucy Walker, director (Almega Projects)

Will win: Inside Job

Achievement in Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Will win: The Wolfman

Achievement in Film Editing
Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum)
The Fighter (Pamela Martin)
The King's Speech (Tariq Anwar)
127 Hours (Jon Harris)
The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)

Will win: The King's Speech

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Hors la Loi (Algeria)

Will win: Incendies

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King's Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
127 Hours (A.R. Rahman)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)

Will win: The King's Speech

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
"Coming Home" from Country Strong Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
"I See the Light" from Tangled Music and Lyric by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Will win: Toy Story 3

Achievement in Sound Editing
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Will win: Inception

Achievement in Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Will win: Inception

Achievement in Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Will win: Inception

Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle)
The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
Winter's Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini)

Will win: The Social Network

Should win: True Grit

True Grit had a more engaging screenplay and from what people have told me it's closer to the book than the version with John Wayne. Look for the Coen brothers to add to their Oscar trophy case.

Original Screenplay
Another Year (Mike Leigh)
The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy)
Inception (Christopher Nolan)
The Kids are All Right (Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko)
The King's Speech (David Seidler)

Will win: Inception

Should win: Inception

I know I will sound like a broken record, but Inception was the most original and thought-provoking film of 2010. Nolan is the most original mind in Hollywood right now. I think the academy will want to reward him in some way for Inception since they shunned him in the directing category. It doesn't make up for that oversight, but it's something.

The Case Against "The Social Network"

The Academy Awards are just around the corner (a week from today!). My Oscar picks will be coming this week. But before I get to that, I would like to voice my disappointment with one of the leading contenders: "The Social Network."

Maybe it's just me, but I found "The Social Network" to be the most overrated movie of 2010. It pains me to say this, because I am a huge fan of director David Fincher and writer Aaron Sorkin. I was sure their combined forces would create one of the best movies of the year. Boy was I wrong! It falls apart even in the opening. I'm pretty computer savvy and am a Facebook user myself, but the techno-babble at the beginning lost me.

I was hoping it would get better. Sadly, it got worse. It vaguely shows how Facebook's founder didn't get along well with women and how he had trouble making friends in general but was a computer whiz. This could have been done with some depth so I cared about the characters. It wasn't. From there on it's an endless series of lawsuits centered around who really founded Facebook. The pacing is terrible, the acting uneven, and the writing forgettable. When the movie was over I thought it was okay, but the more I thought about it the more I realized what a disappointment it was.

It's infuriating to me that this movie is being considered for any awards. How could David Fincher get an Oscar nod for directing over say Christopher Nolan for "Inception?" Fincher has directed far superior movies, such as "Zodiac" and "Se7en." Equally as disappointing to me was the writing. I am a huge fan of Aaron Sorkin for years. After all, he created "The West Wing," one of the smartest shows on TV and also wrote/directed "The American President." In short, this movie is tedious, sloppy, and underwhelming. Spending a day on Facebook would be more worth your time and mentally engaging. Avoid this movie!